11 December 2009

Instability in North Korea

I've long held (though I know it's become conventional wisdom at this point) that instability in North Korea is far more dangerous than the threat of invasion. (More exactly, it is only an unstable North Korea that is going to risk attacking South Korea, hoping for a "rally-round-the-flag effect" to preserve the regime.)

It sounds like we may have to worry about this now. It's impossible to know what's going on inside the country with any confidence, but this report from Tom Ricks is frightening. Like him, I've sat through enough worries about the fall of North Korea (or the imminent invasion of the South) that I'm not going to lose sleep, but it's enough that we need to be paying attention.

In other news, posting will be light today from myself, as I have several duties to attend to (including a graduation ceremony.)

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