17 December 2009

Chavez shoots his mouth off

Hugo is now accusing the Dutch of conspiring with the US to attack Venezuela. This is because the US is basing some troops on some Dutch islands just north of Venezuela.

Except that the US has been basing troops on these islands for years. If we were going to ever attack Venezuela, it would have been while his power was strong, not now that Chavismo seems to be petering out. (Not to mention that we could easily take out the Venezuelan military, even in our currently overstretched state, even without those islands.)

I normally ignore Chavez, but he seems to be really ramping up his "our country is under attack" rhetoric. I am afraid that this could be a prelude to an attack on Colombia (either by his own military or his FARC proxies). More likely, it is merely a public relations ploy to keep himself in power (I've deterred the Yankee imperialists and their Colombian running dogs! You must keep me as leader!), but it's worrisome none the less. At one point must he stop talking and take action? What action will he take?

UPDATE: Just a few minutes after writing this, a news report came in saying that FARC and the National Liberation Army (ELN) were joining forces to attack the Uribe regime in Colombia. This could be the offensive that Venezuela wants to support. As two Marxist groups there is a certain ideological overlap, made more acute by the extreme pressure Uribe has been able to press on them.

It seems that, right now, most analysts are suggesting that it is too late for either of the two to survive. However, with Venezuelan assistance and a safe-haven, they might be able to continue fighting for some time, and we know Venezuela has assisted FARC in the past. This particularly unstable area will need to be monitored for some time.

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