08 February 2010

North Korean collapse?

People have been predicting the collapse of both Cuba and North Korea since the end of the Cold War, and it hasn't happened yet. But this editor at DailyNK does a good job showing why recent events do not bode at all well for the North Korean regime, and how a bad situation there is actually getting even worse.

I've tried to remain skeptical, because I remember getting overly worked up as an undergraduate when I first really learned about the ongoing tensions in the area. I know the dangers of some of the historical parallels that are presented in the comments, especially the one about Eastern Europe. I know that many thought that Tiananmen would be the end of the Chinese regime as well; instead it continued on strong. The difference, though, was that Tiananmen represented the willingness of the Chinese government to engage in whatever oppression was necessary; the recent decision to lay off of the black markets shows that North Korea is either not willing or not capable. A totalitarian regime needs to be both to be effective.

If we see a repeat of this kind of attempted and failed repression in North Korea, then I will sign onto the "North Korea is doomed!" camp.

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