17 March 2010

Conventional Wisdom

About the worst thing a blogger can be is conventional. If you merely parrot conventional wisdom, there is no reason for anyone to read you.

Therefore, I was happy to see that there was at least one thing in Foreign Policy's recent "Five Ways the Conventional Wisdom is Right" that I (somewhat) disagree with. Yes, Iraq was a mistake, Iran likely wants nukes, Putin is (most likely) still in charge of Russia, and the Middle East peace process will continue for decades, but China is far weaker than the author realizes. The author completely ignores all of the signs of domestic unrest in China, from ethnic minorities, displaced peasants, liberals, and ultranationalists. It also ignores the fact that Chinese military spending is still minuscule compared to the US, or even just US allies.

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