CRM to Develop an Iron Ore Mine in Sierra Leone

In response to last months restructuring of iron ore prices, the China Railway Materials Commercial Corporation (a state-owned steel trader) has signed a deal with African Minerals (an exploration company) to develop the Tonkolili iron ore deposit in Sierra Leone. Last month, Vale and BHP Billiton won their bid to change the way iron ore contracts are negotiated, and prices are expected to double as a result. Higher prices means that mining companies can increase their capital investments and mine in areas that were previously unprofitable. This is why it is no surprise that lower-grade deposits like Tonkolili are now commercially viable mining projects. This is excellent news for the world market because it will decrease the growth in prices caused by rising demand from Asia (which is largely the reason prices were rising so steeply in the first place). It will also dampen the market power of Vale, BHP Billiton, and Rio Tinto (the three main iron ore producers), which should also help lower prices because additional competition forces firms to reduce their profit margins.

Obscure War Blogging Part II: Sino-Vietnamese War or Third Indochina War

Last time we met, Pol Pot had just gotten too big for his britches and picked a fight with a much more powerful Vietnam. The next obscure war in our series follows hot on the heels of that one...

Who?: A red-hot Vietnam, fresh off of driving out the Americans, capturing South Vietnam, and showing the Khmer Rouge what for and the big, strong post-Sino-Soviet Split PRC, now in the midst of reform under the steady hand of Deng Xiaoping.

When?: 1979

Toll: The Correlates of War dataset puts the battle deaths at 21K. Official figures are sketchy, but it seems likely that both sides suffered heavy casualties. The war was fought entirely in Vietnam, so civilian casualties were probably quite high among the Vietnamese (some civilians from northern Vietnam claimed that the PLA leveled every building in their towns and villages).

Why?: While the ostensible reasons for the Chinese invasion were poor treatment of ethnic Chinese in Vietnam and Vietnam's occupation of the Spratly Islands, the broader regional and geopolitical picture is much more interesting.

As mentioned in the last entry, China was angry at Vietnam for deposing its Khmer Rouge proxies and for aligning so strongly with the USSR (Russian was now replacing Chinese in Vietnamese school curricula). China had just gotten out of its friendship treaty with the USSR and had a chip on its shoulder. It wanted to demonstrate that a) Vietnam could not dominate Southeast Asia and that b) the USSR could not protect "the Cuba of the East" from China.

At the same time, despite China's assistance against the Americans and the two states' shared communism, Vietnam and China had a long history of enmity that centered around China's historical domination of the smaller nation. This historical feud is probably best personified by the Trung Sisters, Vietnamese folk heroes who supposedly fought off Chinese invasions in the first century (riding elephants, no less).

A couple of other possible, more conspiratorial explanations for the invasion center around Deng Xiaoping's recent seizure of power in China. Some have speculated that Deng may have launched the war in order to a) point out flaws in the PLA and the need for modernization or b) distract the military while he eliminated leftist rivals in the wake of the Cultural Revolution and consolidated power.

Outcome: Chinese ground forces made a brief incursion into the northern part of Vietnam and fighting was fierce. China did not employ airpower. There were some naval engagements that China got the best of, not surprisingly. Overall, though, the plucky, battle-hardened Vietnamese military fought back fiercely against the Chinese force which has been estimated at somewhere around 100K to 200K strong. China actually employed very large forces along its border with the USSR at the same time just in case it decided to intervene on behalf of its client.

The fighting did serve to highlight serious flaws in the PLA, including antiquated technology and poor logistics. Less than a month into the invasion, China announced that Vietnam had been sufficiently punished and withdrew. Both sides spun the war as a victory. However, Vietnam continued its control over the puppet government in Phnom Penh and continued to hassle China along its border.

One small positive aspect of the conflict for China was that it demonstrated that the USSR would not intervene on behalf of Vietnam. The USSR did send arms shipments, but decided that deploying forces into the Southeast Asian theatre was impractical and that reopening the border war with China wasn't worth it. The lesson here, kiddos, is that extended deterrence is a dicey proposition at best!

Border clashes continued between the two communist states into the 90s.

Who Cares?: Once again, this war was strong proof that there was no monolithic communist bloc, although the Sino-Soviet Split and Vietnamese-Cambodian War had already made this quite clear. I'm sure, however, that such a thing continued to exist in the fevered minds of wingnuts in the US.

More interestingly, while we sometimes refer to the Korean War as "The Forgotten War" here in the US, the "Self-Defense and Counterattack Against Vietnam War," as it is referred to in China, is truly a forgotten war--no monuments, no account in textbooks, no nothing. Many veterans never really knew exactly why they had fought the war. A novel about the war almost won a national book award in China before mysteriously being removed from the competition! The actual course of the war does not square with the ruling party's national narrative of a China that has only fought to defend itself and has sought to live in peace with its neighbors, so it has simply been deleted from history.

Hearts and Minds in Xinjiang

There is a reason why the rule of law is so precious in any country, even China. Sometime yesterday, 6 men were convicted and sentenced to death for their parts in the riots in Xinjiang in July. Of course, there are many people (particularly in the Muslim community in China) that are convinced it is a sham.

If the Chinese (and particularly the Chinese Uyghurs) had a real belief in the fairness of the justice system, it is likely that these riots never would have happened. But, because no one does, it is likely that the riots will resurface again, particularly after a quite likely flawed trial condemns more Uyghurs to death. If the people believed it was a fair trial, then they would be more likely to accept the outcome. Because they do not, more violence could result.

This is the problem with the Chinese approach on so many fronts. They have been trying to build up soft power in many parts of the world (especially with the Confucian centers that have been opened around the world), they still ignore many of the actual roots of soft power, even with their own citizens. This is not a way to build legitimacy; it merely erodes it further. (The same happens when they lash out against the Dalai Lama for going to give religious care to Taiwanese.)

Without fixing these problems of legitimacy, the Chinese will never end the general violence and distrust in Xinjiang.