AEI: Applying the Lessons of Colombia to Afghanistan

One of the things I've been trying to do more lately is to seriously read and engage the ideas of people and/or groups that I generally disagree with. The American Enterprise Institute has generally been one of those entities because, from my experience, they have generally pushed a military force uber alles approach to foreign policy. That's why I was surprised to read this article from their journal on how COIN lessons taken from the success that Colombia has seen in combating FARC and ELN could be applied to the current situation in Afghanistan.

What surprised me about the article was its minimalist approach. In the past, neoconservative outlets such as AEI have almost invariably advocated a maximalist, all-in, send 8 jillion US troops approach to any given conflict or problem. However, the author of this piece, Haddick, soberly analyzes the similarities and differences between the two conflicts and makes reasonable conclusions regarding applicable lessons that could be applied to the situation.

And here's the kicker...the recommendations are actually quite limited and modest! Haddick recommends an emphasis on quality over quantity in building up Afghan security forces, since this approach worked well against the Colombian insurgents. He also recommends emphasizing helicopters in security assistance to Afghan security forces due to the rough terrain (again, something that worked well for Colombian forces in the rough terrain that they fought in). Finally, he recommends working to develop local security forces since potential soldiers are often loathe to serve far away from their homes.

All of these recommendations are sensible, and the great part is that they don't really require any massive commitment of treasure or personnel on the part of Western governments (although of course the helicopters could be expensive). Score one for the neocon think tank.

Escalation Along the Axis of Tension

This militarization is starting to look really dangerous and seems poised to break the relatively peaceful streak that the Western Hemisphere had going.

The Colombian government has announced it is building a new military base on its border with Venezuela and has activated six new airborne battalions.

Relations between the two nations are at a historic low with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez already telling his generals to prepare for war.

He moved 15,000 more troops up to the border, accusing Colombia and its ally, the US, of planning an attack.

A BBC correspondent says the potential for conflict is heightened.

Colombian Defence Minister Gabriel Silva announced the formation of a new base in La Guajira in the north, near the Venezuelan border.

At the same time, the Colombian army activated the new airborne battalions, which are equipped with US helicopters.

The helicopter fleet, made up mainly of Blackhawks, now numbers 120, making the Colombian Army Air Corps the best equipped and most experienced in Latin America, the BBC's Jeremy McDermott in Colombia says.

Again, much of this is linked to paranoia surrounding the new US basing agreement with Colombia.

Timely News out of Ecuador

In a very recent post, I said that:

Correa...has positioned Ecuador in the camp of far-left Latin American leaders opposed to the United States' presence in the region. It seems likely that Venezuela and Ecuador could probably do more to cut down on the activities of left-wing Colombian rebels and drug gangs using their territory as sanctuary.

Time reports further on the recently released commission report out of Ecudaor:

Several former officials of the Ecuadorian government had ties with Colombia's Marxist guerrillas, a commission named by President Rafael Correa conceded Tuesday...

The 131-page Angostura report provides further evidence that Gustavo Larrea, who has held positions as Interior and Security Minister under Correa, had direct links to the FARC, along with José Ignacio Chauvín, briefly his deputy in the Interior Ministry, and Maria Augusta Calle, a television journalist and currently a legislator for Correa's Alianza Pais political movement. All deny supporting the guerrillas. At the same time, however, the report is certain to come under scrutiny for the way it insulates Correa from blame...

Huerta, however, said that the commission didn't find evidence of FARC donations to Correa's 2006 election campaign. According to Correa's now-estranged brother Fabricio, who managed the campaign, the rebels' offer of a donation was rejected.

While I have no way of judging whether the commission was designed to provide cover to Correa, it seems like a good thing that the government is at least investigating and acknowledging FARC ties amongst some of its officials. These findings seems to vindicate the Colombian raid to some extent...

The Caracas-Bogota-Quito Axis of Tension

A new report issued by the Ecuadorian government claims that intelligence provided by US military personnel operating out of an air base in Manta aided a Colombian attack on the leftist Colombian FARC rebel group in Ecuador last year. Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa, has since terminated the basing deal with the US (perhaps as a result of this incident). Both the US and Colombia deny any involvement with the attack.

The operation killed a leading member of FARC, angering Hugo Chavez (was he mad because of the violation of Ecuador's sovereignty, or because he's a friend of FARC?) and leading to the mobilization of Venezuelan forces along the Colombian border. Eventually, tensions died down, but seem to have heated up again this year, centered around the issue of a new US basing agreement with Colombia. This new report should serve to throw a little more fuel on the fire.

This probably constitutes the most tense conglomeration of cross border tensions in the western hemisphere. Correa, while seemingly not as confrontational as the bombastic Chavez, has positioned Ecuador in the camp of far-left Latin American leaders opposed to the United States' presence in the region. It seems likely that Venezuela and Ecuador could probably do more to cut down on the activities of left-wing Colombian rebels and drug gangs using their territory as sanctuary.

On the other side of the divide, while Colombia's Uribe has positioned himself as "our man in Latin America," his party has serious issues of its own, including associations with right-wing paramilitary groups and killings of trade union members. And for some reason, Uribe's bid to amend the constitution to run for another term doesn't attract nearly as much ire as Ortega's or Zelaya's...

With respect to this set of problems, the United States' main priority should probably be to avoid being drawn into the conflict. This seems to be becoming more difficult, though, due to our increasingly close ties to Colombia. Hopefully, we have made it exceedingly clear to Uribe et al. that they need us way more than we need them. Stop killing union members and such and we'll be happy to pass a free trade agreement with you. We'll even help you with your FARC problem! But don't go off half-cocked, get yourself in a bind, and expect the US to have your back. I'm sure in the event of war, John McCain and the rest of the usual suspects would pronounce us "all Colombians," but, frankly, we're really not.